Population survey is a prominent aspect in the field
of counting through which actual strength and number of manpower can be
measured scientifically. There is no denying the fact that in Bangladesh such
survey has been carried out in many times but the criteria that have been used
as performance indicators which have not satisfied the targeted goals. After survey
it is seen that many complaints have been received from different regions where
double counting, triple counting and even forged people being fictitious have
been explored. The word survey originates from census which emanates from the
Latin term censure, envisaging ‘assess’ and it by and large indicates the
official complete counting of a country’s population. Besides population survey,
there are two other types of surveys that are frequently conducted. These are
agricultural survey or counting of agricultural holdings and economic survey or
counting of economic units. All the three types of surveys-population, agricultural
and economic- are on a regular basis held in Bangladesh. However, as the
population survey illustrates the numerical universe of the country, all other surveys
depend on population survey as a concrete framework of data collection.
Considering total counts of population, household or
land sporadically in villages was ingredient of social life from early times in
the Indian subcontinent as well as the areas now comprising Bangladesh. The
system sustained in the Mughal period predominantly throughout their reigns but
chopped in disuse after the decline of the Mughal Empire. The first population survey
for the whole country on modern line following the one designed for the Belgian
Survey of 1845, was established by the British Government all the way through
India counting the present day Bangladesh territory in 1881as a decennial procedure.
The 1881 populace survey was paved the way by a number of surveys of investigational
nature taken during 1769-1855 by the East India Company and by the Crown during
1858-1869. However, as compared to up-to-the-minute surveys, these surveys were
disconnected, barely methodical and lacked standardization. The methodical challenge
to determine the entirety population of the complete countryside by actually
counting heads was made between 1867 and 1872.
.
Feedback form is the heart of survey taking and reflects the basic purpose for which
the survey is taken. Since 1981 survey, Bangladesh population survey have
included two questionnaires- the short or the main questionnaire that is
universally canvassed and the long questionnaire that is used in the sample
survey. The sample survey is conducted after the main count to collect detailed
and supplementary information on the basis of sampling a portion of the counted
population. Since 1981 survey the OPTICAL MARK READER questionnaire in
completely pre-coded form has been successfully used in the total count to
collect the population and housing information with considerable ease in field record,
reduction in data capture time and complete elimination of human error in data
capture process. Specimen of the OPTICAL MARK READER forms used in the main
counts of 1981 and 1991 survey are provided as appendices. Since the 2001
sample survey is planned to cover a fairly large segment of the population
[nearly 20%], to reduce data capture time and error free data entry, the sample
survey questionnaire will also be in OPTICAL MARK READER format.
The topics included in the main survey questionnaire
are of two types -information collected for each individual person and housing
information. To fulfill the requirements of a simple, short and OPTICAL MARK
READER based questionnaire, only the key topics are included after a balanced
consideration of several key factors. These include the priority national
needs, willingness and ability of the public to provide the information
adequately, international comparability of the information both within the
SAARC region and on a worldwide basis and human and financial resources
available for conducting the survey to collect the information. Formulation and
finalization of the survey questionnaire takes up greater part of the survey
planning time, and extends usually over two to three years. For ensuring
comparability of successive survey core topics are retained from survey to survey
and addition or deletion of other topics is done sparingly. The questionnaire
is finalized on the basis of several pretests in actual field conditions and on
the scrutiny and advice of the survey technical committee that consists of
academic experts, representatives of survey data users and business community, legislative
body of the ministries, local governments and NGOs. whole topics enclosed in
the survey include in addition to the core topics of the short questionnaire,
the topics in the sample survey questionnaire, which are usually more detailed
aimed at collecting flow type data compared to the bench mark type data
targeted by the main survey. By way of supplementing the core topics of the
short questionnaire, the sample survey questionnaire of the recent Bangladesh
population survey have included topics of demographic, economic and social
importance on both the individual and housing modules. On the individual module
the following topics are included:
·
Fertility
·
Mortality
·
Migration
·
Physical
disability and impairment
·
Causes of
disability
·
Income of the
household head and main sources of income
·
Status and the
Institutional sector of employment
·
Place of work
On
the housing and household module the topics included in the sample survey had
been the following:
·
Rooms and floor
space
·
Water supply
system
·
Toilet and
sewerage facilities
·
Cooking
facilities
·
Lighting and type
of fuel and electricity
·
Rental and
housing costs of owner occupant housing
The population survey is undoubtedly the single most extensive, complicated and expensive statistical operation consisting of a complex series of interrelated steps, that the country undertakes. A key feature of the recent Bangladesh population survey is preparation and implementation of a comprehensive survey plan that fully reflects the strategic objectives of the survey and identifies the diverse survey operations to insure that they occur in their proper sequence and in a timely manner. Bangladesh survey plan divides survey activities into the following six phases:
· Preparatory work
·
Record
·
Evaluation of record
quality
·
Data processing
·
Dissemination of
the results
·
Analysis of the
results
Operationally, the six
phases are not chronologically entirely separate or mutually exclusive but
overlapping and interactive. The preparatory phase consists of several diverse
activities and is the most difficult and time consuming usually taking around
60% of the total survey plan time. On the other hand it is the right
conceptualization through satisfactory implementation of the key activities of
the preparatory phase that makes or unmakes the survey.
Preparatory phase include:
·
Planning the survey
calendar or the survey time Figure,
·
Fixation of the
size of record area [EA]
·
Mapping work for
dividing the whole country into EAs with the help of survey cartography,
·
Preparation of
the survey questionnaire and its printing,
·
Plan of survey record
including recruitment and training of field enumerators and supervisors.
The
other activities are no less important. These include insuring proper legal
basis for the survey, developing survey budget and system of cost control,
development of survey administration, plan for PEQC and quality control, plan
for survey publicity, data processing plan and plan for survey publication and
dissemination of survey data and information. The survey calendar or time
Figure indicates the sequence and estimated duration of each component
operations of the survey. The key date in the calendar is of course the
starting and closing dates of the general record of the population on which
hinge all other operations. Survey
calendar in Bangladesh
is usually drawn in the form of a bar or the Programme Evaluation Review
Technique (PERT) chart, with separate bars of each main operation.
Survey budget provides
careful financial estimates of the cost of each operation of the survey and is
based on costs of the components and estimate of the total cost of the entire survey
operation. And the budget together with the budget calendar is used as an
instrument of effective control of survey operations. Levels of expenditures in
the previous survey classified by survey phases form the basis of preliminary
estimates that are modified to take into account general inflation and changes
in the scope. One special feature of Bangladesh survey budget is foreign
donor assistance that funds substantial portion of the total cost particularly
foreign exchange costs of data processing and data input mercenaries and
printing of OPTICAL MARK READER questionnaires.
In a nutshell, mean cost per person itemized
was around Taka 2 in 1981 in nominal prices that include costs of record,
equipment, data processing and dissemination and all other costs, which
increased to Taka 3 in 1991. The likely average cost in 2001 survey is
projected at Taka 4. Survey EA: Success of the survey field record depends on
fixation of the optimum size of record area and segmenting the country into record
areas. For the purpose of counting, the target population is divided into four groups-population
in dwelling houses, population in institutional houses [such as hotels,
hostels, mess, jails, hospitals etc], and floating population [i.e. rootless or
population without any permanent address] and population on transit [on the survey
night]. Of these the largest group in the country is population in dwelling
which accounts for about 98% of the enumerated population and the remaining
groups around 2%. Since record of the population in dwelling as well as housing
is done on household basis the size of EA is determined on the number of
households an enumerator can cover within the stipulated period of field record,
which in the 1981 and 1991 survey has been 3 days. The size of record varies
between 90 to 110 households averaging around 100. Division of the country into
record areas is done meticulously for urban and rural areas separately with the
help of up to data base maps.
Population
survey extends the concept of urban areas from survey to survey. Currently
urban areas in Bangladesh
include all the four statistical metropolitan areas [defined as the area
including the per urban areas adjacent to the metropolitan areas], all
municipalities and other urban areas that include growth centers and thana head quarters and
the survey concept of urban areas is used universally.
Each
EA is provided with a geocode [a 7-digit hierarchical code that covers all the
major and minor civil divisions of the country] and a separate map with a clear
delineated boundary identified through prominent landmarks on the ground is
prepared for each EA. Preparation of EA maps is done through country wide field
operation which is done by counting all dwelling houses and their inhabitants,
identifying EA boundaries on the base maps and is a major operation that takes
greater part of survey planning. The finalized EA maps are reproduced and each
enumerator is provided with a copy to insure accurate field record and
avoidance of duplication or overlap in counting between neighboring EAs. Five
EAs are grouped to form SAs or supervision areas and each supervisor is
provided with a copy of the SA map. Totaling EAs and SAs the number of
enumerators and supervisors is arrived at. Selection of enumerators and
supervisors for the purpose of survey is done through another country - wide
operation called zonal operation, which is carried out by the field net work of
BBS.
The plan of operation is then prepared. The plan sets
forth the countrywide survey publicity arrangements and other operational
components of the survey plan. Survey publicity uses every avenue of
nation-wide publicity particularly media, loud speaker, drum beating, and other
traditional means. Other operational components include scheduling of field
training of EAs and SAs delivered through a hierarchy of master trainers,
and the logistical arrangements for survey
materials including dispatch of books containing survey questionnaire and
return of the filled in questionnaires and record schedule. Specifying dates
for training including mock record by all enumerators and supervisors and the
dates for actual record around the specified survey night are the other key
elements of the plan of operation.
The testing of the various aspects of the operation
plan including record is carried out a few months prior to holding the actual survey
in all EAs comprising a Thana
in an operation known as Pilot Survey. The Pilot survey tests the operations
planned for all stages of survey including record, processing and evaluation of
results and provide information on the adequacy of field organization, quality
control measures and training program and help identify the procedural
weaknesses so that they can be rectified on time. By using OPTICAL MARK READER schedule for survey
record has simplified and cut down by at least two thirds the data capture
time, while insuring an almost error free data capture process. This in turn
has reduced substantially the overall data processing and tabulation time. In
fact full tabulation of the survey is completed within one year of survey record
which usually took around five to six years in pre- OPTICAL MARK READER survey.
Use of OCR and other state-of –the –art data capture equipment are likely to
reduce further the data processing time in future survey.
Survey results
are tabulated hierarchically up from mauza [and villages comprising mauza and
mahalla and ward for urban areas], union, Thana,
zilla, division and finally aggregated for the country as a whole. For the
purpose of dissemination survey publication includes several volumes including
the National Analytical Report and District Reports for each district of the
country. These are supplemented by special reports on Post record quality check
survey, Sample survey, Analytical report on urban areas and an administrative
report on the survey operations. In addition to hard copies, all survey data
are available in machine-readable forms-in diskettes and CDs.
Survey
Evaluation: Post Record Quality Check: A unique feature of Bangladesh survey
is post record quality check survey that is conducted immediately [usually 15
days to a month] after the main count. The purpose is to check the overall
quality of the survey main count by estimating the degree of coverage error
i.e. omission or duplication of persons and content error or the errors in responding
to survey questionnaire. Typically coverage error in Bangladesh survey relate to missing
of persons and entire households from the main count. This arises largely from
the high density of population and the propensity to live everywhere, not only
in dwelling but also in every type of structures. The growing number of
floating population and slum dwellers particularly in urban and peri-urban
areas adds to the problem. Content or response errors relate primarily to age record,
to literacy and marital status. PEQC is conducted by completely enumerating a
smaller number of randomly selected survey record areas both in rural and urban
areas through a completely independent agency engaging a different set of field
enumerators. Results of the PEQC survey are matched with the survey record to
estimate the coverage and response errors of survey. The survey results
however, are not corrected for these errors except that on the basis of net
coverage error the global count of population for the country is adjusted and
published as an estimate allowing for undercount.
Survey publications: publications are the main
products of survey that disseminate the principal results of the population
count and the housing survey. Primary data are always aggregated into Figures,
since disclosure of individual identity is prohibited under the survey law.
Aggregated data are presented as Figures on age, sex and geographical
distribution of population and living quarters, households and population by
type of living quarters, distribution of population by literacy status and
years of schooling, labour force participation and, urbanization etc. Using
modern computer and data capture equipment for the processing of survey data
BBS has been reducing greatly the unit cost and lead time required for data
processing compared to older form of processing. Bangladesh survey publications
include the following volumes of reports:
§ Report on the preliminary survey count
§ National Volume includes detailed national Figures and
analysis
§ District series–detailed district wise data and Figures.
§ Community series- selected data by villages and unions
§ Report of the sample survey
§ Report of the PEQC
§ Special reports on urbanization, housing etc
§ Administrative report on the survey operation.
. As a result of the long lead time survey data become
largely un-current and lose their value for users. The goal should be to
complete final survey product within one year of survey taking. Origination
with the 1981survey methodological improvements and technology based survey
infrastructure and the state-of-the-art equipments have been progressively
deployed to minimize the risks, reduce production time and insure a quality survey.
Accurate and updated record area maps are now the basis of survey count that
reduces the risk of under count or overlaps. EA maps based on the most recent
aerial photograph of the country are being developed to insure improve counts
in urban areas in the coming survey of 2001.OPTICAL MARK READER based schedule
integrating housing and population count has simplified the main operation,
ensuring quality record. Also error free data processing along with substantial
reduction in data processing time have been realized The likely use of OCR
technology in the 2001 survey will further improve the quality of Bangladesh survey
and cut down production lead time substantially Data dissemination in CD and
other computer readable media will speed up data dissemination and insure wide
spread use of survey data. Applications of state-of- the - art technology in
future survey takings are likely to make Bangladesh survey a highly cost
effective public venture with extensive value to the nation and all users of survey
data.
In view of the above, it is evident that in order to
congregate varied customer requirements BBS also provide special tabulation of
the survey data in diskette or CD. BBS is also on the increase the MNSDS -the
bare minimum national social data set of Bangladesh based on the survey and
related survey data on the Internet website for global use. The main challenge
of population survey taking in Bangladesh
is the risk of under count i.e. missing persons or entire households from
counting. High density of population and the propensity of the people to live
every where, in dwelling as well as non-dwelling structures of every
description. The risk is relatively high in urban areas due to prevalence of
slums and growing trend of floating or shelter less persons. As the country’s
population grows the risk is also likely to intensify. The other risk relates
to the problem of correct age record of the people particularly children and
women and arises from high illiteracy, almost universal digital preference and
from the absence of a countrywide birth registration system.
The resultant distribution of population by single age is highly imprecise; graduation and age grouping are therefore essential for age profiling. Age Pyramid of Bangladesh, the main output of Population survey is a highly approximate one. The third test is diminution of the lead-time in broadcasting total survey product i.e. national volumes and district reports to the users. Despite using of OPTICAL MARK READER technology that has speeded up data capture time significantly since 1981 survey, it still takes about 5 to 7 years to produce the complete set of survey reports.
The resultant distribution of population by single age is highly imprecise; graduation and age grouping are therefore essential for age profiling. Age Pyramid of Bangladesh, the main output of Population survey is a highly approximate one. The third test is diminution of the lead-time in broadcasting total survey product i.e. national volumes and district reports to the users. Despite using of OPTICAL MARK READER technology that has speeded up data capture time significantly since 1981 survey, it still takes about 5 to 7 years to produce the complete set of survey reports.